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The percentages of recruits from some census regions of the United States have remained fairly stable since the inception of the
volunteer force. However, as Figure 2.10 illustrates, in other regions some substantial shifts have taken place. The percentage of accessions from the Northeast dropped 8 points from a high of 22 percent in
FY 1977 to a low of 14 percent in FY 1989. Today, 16 percent of enlisted recruits are Northeasterners. The proportion of accessions from the South increased 9 percentage points from 34 percent in FY 1985 to
43 percent in FY 1995. In FY 1997, 42 percent of new recruits were from the South.
Figure 2.10. NPS accessions by geographic region, FYs 1973-1997.
Changes in geographical representation are related to factors such as shifts in demographic
patterns, unemployment, college enrollment, and employment compensation rates, which vary widely across regions of the country.(32)
Obviously, no one factor can explain variations in enlistment rates between different sections of the country; they are more likely
attributable to a wide array of economic, social, and demographic factors.
Table 2.10 presents FY 1997 accession statistics by geographic region, division, and state. The third and fourth columns show percentages of accessions and percentages of the 18-
to 24-year-old civilian population, respectively, in each area. The fifth column presents military/civilian representation ratios--the percentage of enlisted accessions divided by the
percentage of civilians in each area. A representation ratio of 1.00 means that the area has the same proportion of accessions as of the youth population--for example, 8 percent of all
recruits and 8 percent of all youth aged 18-24. A ratio of less than 1.00 means that relatively few youth in an area enlist in the military, while a ratio of more than 1.00 indicates
above-average market penetration. The last two columns of the table present the percentages of high-quality accessions (high school graduates in AFQT Categories I-IIIA) and mean AFQT scores for each area. The South region had the greatest ratio of enlistees (1.2). The South Atlantic and West
South Central divisions had the strongest representation (1.3 and 1.2, respectively). The Northeast, North Central, and West regions had representation ratios of 0.9. Most states
had representation ratios less than one; the exceptions were Maine, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island in the Northeast, Missouri, South Dakota, and Nebraska in the North
Central, Delaware, Tennessee, and the District of Columbia in the South, and Colorado, Utah, California, and Hawaii in the West. The ratios ranged from 0.5 in Utah to 1.9 in Montana.
The sixth column of Table 2.10 shows the proportion of high-quality accessions by geographical area. There were only minor differences by region in FY 1997. The
proportion of high-quality accessions by region ranged from a low of 60 percent in the South to a high of 67 percent in the North Central region. Differences across divisions
were somewhat larger. Ten percentage points separated the East South Central and West
North Central divisions. Differences at the state level were still larger, ranging from 51 percent for the District of Columbia and Mississippi to 78 percent in North Dakota. The last column of Table 2.10 shows the mean AFQT score by each geographical area.
Occasionally interest has been expressed in using AFQT scores as an indicator of the performance of state educational systems. AFQT statistics are not particularly suitable for
this purpose for several reasons. As a sample of youth in a state, ASVAB test-takers reflect a number of selection biases, the total effect of which is unknown. Those who take
the test as part of the enlistment process exclude many students who intend to enroll in college, prospects who fail the enlistment screening test, and youth who do not have an
interest in military enlistment. Therefore, youth who take the ASVAB should not be presumed to be representative of the communities or school systems from which they are
drawn. Even without the biases, it would be difficult to determine how much the test scores reflect differences in school performance from state to state, or how much they
reflect other state characteristics, such as social composition and economic conditions. In sum, while the ASVAB is an excellent instrument for the purposes for which it was
designed, it does not provide valid state-by-state school performance data. Nevertheless, AFQT scores by state may be of interest for purposes other than assessing
school system performance. The AFQT figures in Table 2.10 reflect the mean AFQT percentile scores for accessions in each state. Percentiles displayed in Table 2.10 are all
above 50 because low-scoring applicants are screened out.
Table 2.10. Selected Statistics for FY 1997 NPS Accessions by
Region, Division, and State and Civilians 18-24 Years Old |
CENSUS REGION CENSUS DIVISION STATE |
Area's
Contribution
of All NPS
Accessions |
Area's
Percent
of All NPS
Accessions |
Area's
Percent
of All 18-24
Year-Olds |
Represen-
tation
Ratio |
Percent of
High-Quality
Accessions* |
Mean
AFQT
Percentile
Score |
NORTHEAST REGION |
29,302 |
15.7 |
18.1 |
0.9 |
64.1 |
60.7 |
New England Division |
6,937 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
0.9 |
63.6 |
61.2 |
Maine |
1,268 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
67.0 |
63.5 |
New Hampshire |
809 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
68.6 |
64.2 |
Vermont |
353 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
70.3 |
64.4 |
Massachusetts |
2,409 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
61.3 |
59.6 |
Rhode Island |
569 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
60.8 |
59.4 |
Connecticut |
1,529 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
61.5 |
60.3 |
Middle Atlantic Division
|
22,365 |
12.0 |
13.8 |
0.9 |
64.3 |
60.5 |
New York |
10,692 |
5.7 |
6.8 |
0.8 |
63.1 |
60.3 |
New Jersey |
4,101 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
0.8 |
63.1 |
59.3 |
Pennsylvania |
7,572 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
0.9 |
66.6 |
61.5 |
| |
NORTH CENTRAL REGION |
37,899 |
20.3 |
23.5 |
0.9 |
66.5 |
61.9 |
East North Central Division |
26,010 |
13.9 |
16.7 |
0.8 |
65.8 |
61.5 |
Ohio |
7,425 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
0.9 |
66.1 |
61.2 |
Indiana |
3,383 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
67.0 |
62.9 |
Illinois |
6,886 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
0.8 |
62.7 |
60.5 |
Michigan |
5,744 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
0.8 |
65.3 |
61.0 |
Wisconsin |
2,572 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
72.7 |
64.5 |
West North Central Division
|
11,889 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
0.9 |
67.9 |
62.8 |
Minnesota |
2,141 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
71.5 |
65.1 |
Iowa |
1,855 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
70.9 |
63.8 |
Missouri |
3,975 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
63.5 |
60.7 |
North Dakota |
374 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
77.8 |
66.3 |
South Dakota |
663 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
68.6 |
62.7 |
Nebraska |
1,268 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
67.1 |
62.9 |
Kansas |
1,613 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
68.5 |
62.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SOUTH REGION |
79,316 |
42.4 |
35.3 |
1.2 |
59.9 |
58.8 |
South Atlantic Division |
39,926 |
21.4 |
17.1 |
1.3 |
59.7 |
58.7 |
Delaware |
485 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
69.3 |
61.3 |
Maryland |
3,591 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
61.5 |
58.8 |
District of Columbia |
285 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
51.2 |
55.0 |
Virginia |
6,039 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
60.3 |
59.5 |
West Virginia |
1,650 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
59.1 |
57.6 |
North Carolina |
5,339 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
1.0 |
59.5 |
58.3 |
South Carolina |
3,866 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
55.6 |
56.5 |
Georgia |
6,142 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
1.1 |
56.3 |
57.0 |
Florida |
12,529 |
6.7 |
4.8 |
1.4 |
61.7 |
60.2 |
East South Central Division
|
12,369 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
1.0 |
57.5 |
57.8 |
Kentucky |
2,616 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
61.7 |
59.3 |
Tennessee |
3,515 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
61.8 |
60.4 |
Alabama |
4,028 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
54.4 |
56.0 |
Mississippi |
2,210 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
51.2 |
54.9 |
West South Central Division
|
27,021 |
14.5 |
11.9 |
1.2 |
61.4 |
59.5 |
Arkansas |
2,242 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
56.6 |
58.3 |
Louisiana |
3,753 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
56.9 |
56.8 |
Oklahoma |
3,010 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
61.6 |
59.3 |
Texas |
18,016 |
9.6 |
7.7 |
1.2 |
62.9 |
60.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
WEST REGION |
40,339 |
21.6 |
23.0 |
0.9 |
64.2 |
60.8 |
Mountain Division |
13,104 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
66.4 |
62.2 |
Montana |
1,171 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
1.9 |
68.2 |
64.0 |
Idaho |
1,074 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
68.0 |
63.5 |
Wyoming |
567 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
1.6 |
67.6 |
62.8 |
Colorado |
2,561 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
67.4 |
63.3 |
New Mexico |
1,681 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
61.1 |
59.8 |
Arizona |
3,659 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
65.5 |
61.4 |
Utah |
1,028 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
71.4 |
63.5 |
Nevada |
1,363 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
66.4 |
61.2 |
Pacific Division |
27,235 |
14.6 |
16.1 |
0.9 |
63.1 |
60.1 |
Washington |
4,134 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
68.4 |
63.4 |
Oregon |
2,403 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
70.5 |
64.4 |
California |
19,387 |
10.4 |
12.2 |
0.9 |
61.0 |
58.8 |
Alaska |
588 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
67.2 |
64.0 |
Hawaii |
723 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
60.9 |
58.2 |
Total (50 STATES + D.C.) |
186,856** |
100.0 |
100.0 |
1.0 |
62.8 |
60.1 |
Columns may not add to total due to rounding.
* High-quality accessions are high school graduates who score
at or above the 50th percentile on the AFQT. This column is the number of high-quality accessions in area divided by the total number of accessions in area.
** Does not include 2,039 recruits from the territories and unknowns.
Source: Civilian data from Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey, File, October 1996 - September 1997 |
Go to Next Chapter - 3- Active Component Enlisted Force
- Kostiuk, P.F., Geographic Variations in Recruiting Market Conditions (Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analyses, 1989).
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